Fertiliser Crisis and Africa Food Security: How Global Conflict Is Threatening West and Central Africa’s Food Systems

Maryam Adegboyega
3 days ago
3 min read

The fertiliser crisis, Africa's food security challenge, is worsening as geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and rising costs threaten agricultural productivity across West and Central Africa.

An image of a dried out corn fields — Photo by Elmer Cañas on Unsplash

Geopolitical conflict is a major driver of food insecurity. It disrupts food production, destroys infrastructure, and destabilises food supply chains, creating a vicious cycle of scarcity. Conflicts also have lasting effects on food prices, contributing to global price volatility. As the war in Iran continues, food systems in West and Central Africa are beginning to feel significant pressure. This article explains how we got here and what it means for the region.

Since 2020, food price inflation has been persistently high across most of sub-Saharan Africa, largely triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent global shocks. By the end of 2025, the agricultural products price index had dropped by about 7%, although prices of staple foods such as rice, wheat, and maize continued to increase in many African markets. This situation is expected to worsen as fertiliser prices rise alongside energy costs following disruptions in global shipping routes, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.

Sub-Saharan Africa has some of the lowest agricultural yields globally, often reaching only about 40% of the world's average. Much of the farmland is nutrient-depleted, and when combined with climate shocks such as prolonged dry spells and flooding, food production becomes highly unstable. In this context, sustainable fertiliser use is critical for improving yields and strengthening food security in the region.

What does this mean for West and Central Africa?

According to the World Bank’s Food & Nutrition Security Update report, food inflation could reach 30%, potentially pushing 52 million people into acute food insecurity by mid-2026. This projection is closely linked to fertiliser shortages and declining agricultural productivity.

Fertiliser shipments through the Strait of Hormuz account for about 25% of global ammonia supply and nearly 40% of seaborne urea. As of May 2026, a significant share of global fertiliser shipments remains delayed or disrupted, contributing to a tightening global supply and rising costs. In response, some countries are increasingly relying on alternative land-based transport routes or shifting supply sources.

For Sub-Saharan Africa, the options remain limited. Major exporters such as Russia and China have introduced export restrictions to safeguard domestic food security amid global uncertainty. As a result, fertiliser prices are projected to rise by more than 30%. At the same time, many African governments are already struggling to sustain fertiliser subsidy programs for farmers. Rising energy and insurance costs are further increasing logistics expenses, worsening food inflation and reducing overall food availability.

According to the FAO, even a 10% reduction in fertiliser availability in Africa could reduce the productivity of key crops such as rice, maize, and wheat by up to 25%. This is already the stark reality for the region. The challenge is that access to fertiliser in Africa is already limited. According to the International Fertiliser Association (IFA), average fertiliser consumption is around 17 kg per hectare, compared to a global average of 134.5 kg per hectare. This means that for every hectare of farmland in Africa, only 12% of the required nutrients are supplied. In addition, about 80% of fertiliser demand in Africa is met through imports, making it extremely vulnerable to global shocks. In reality, import logistics are expensive due to high freight, financing, and logistics costs, often exceeding those in Europe.

Moving Forward..

To mitigate these risks, the African Development Bank (AfDB) has called for urgent coordinated action in five key areas:

Strengthening market intelligence systems to anticipate supply disruptions
Coordinating regional procurement through fertiliser demand pooling
Investing in and expanding domestic and regional fertiliser production
Protecting smallholder farmers from price shocks
Adapting the African Union’s Fertiliser and Soil Health Initiative to restore soil quality and improve agricultural productivity

Although driven by distant geopolitical tensions, the ripple effects of global conflicts are increasingly shaping food security outcomes in West and Central Africa. However, this crisis also presents an opportunity for the region to accelerate agricultural transformation, strengthen resilience, and reduce dependence on volatile global supply chains.

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